MLB New Import Tracker 2009: Koji Uehara

The regular MLB season starts Sunday night, so I'll be previewing our new imports over the next few days, revving up for The MLB New Import Tracker that'll keep you updated throughout the season on all the international free agents making their MLB debuts. We start with Koji Uehara.

I previewed Uehara back when he declared his free agency in April, 2008. He was coming off a very rough 2007, and things hardly smoothed out: although he was once considered the equal of Daisuke Matsuzaka, for most of last season, the Yomiuri Giants used him as a swingman. He started in 12 of his 26 appearances, posting a 6-5 record with 1 save and 72 strikeouts in 89 innings. However, he pitched so poorly for a stretch that he was demoted briefly and almost failed to make the 2008 Olympic squad. He turned things around in Beijing, finishing out a 6-1 victory against Chinese Taipei, then earning his first Olympic save against Canada two days later.

For the Baltimore Orioles, the MLB team that signed him to a two-year, $10M contract (with an additional $3M to be made in performance bonuses, including 34 starts or 200 innings pitched), Uehara joins their rotation as the No. 2 starter behind Jeremy Guthrie. The AL East is a tough division on which to cut your major-league chops…although plenty of pitchers, including Dice-K, have done it successfully.

Uehara suffered a mild hamstring strain Mar. 9, so, with some extra time on his hands, he learned a new pitch: a changeup, which he can apparently throw for strikes. The hamstring seems to be on the mend; the changeup is now officially part of his repertoire.

But what kind of repertoire are we talking about? An injury-prone control artist in Japan, he’s never walked many batters, which (on his good days) made him Greg Maddux in his prime, or (on his bad days) led to fits of gopher-itis. He just turned thirty-four; he hasn't pitched over 100 innings in a season since 2006. Maybe the Orioles' trainers can keep him healthy, but given that the MLB season is longer the NBL, asking Uehara to take the mound every fifth day over the course of an entire season might, in the end, be too much to ask.

Neither ESPN nor The Bill James Handbook 2009 dared venture a projection; Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster labeled him “a gamble.” Baseball 81 has him making 28 starts, throwing 162.5 innings, and going 6-10 with a 4.25 ERA and 120 Ks. (Theirs is the only projection I can find that thinks he'll stick in the starting rotation all year, an idea that might be, at heart, overly-optimistic.) But if they're right, I think the O’s will take that. And if Uehara stays healthy, that sounds like a fair projection.

Lots of questions marks, which is why we don't see nearly the hype and fanfare that welcomed players like Dice-K, Ichiro, or even Kaz Matsui when they made their big-league debuts. Uehara makes his first start Wednesday, Apr. 8 at home against the Yankees.