So let's close the book on our new imports of 2008.
Kosuke Fukudome, RF—#1—Chicago Cubs
Birthplace: Kagoshima, Japan
After homering on Opening Day, starting his own cottage industry, and being elected as a starter to the All-Star Game in his rookie season, maybe there was just nowhere to go but down for Kosuke Fukudome during the second half of the season. Because go down he did—like a zeppelin on fire.
According to the Chicago Sun Times’ Chris De Luca, the Cubs now have a $38m problem on their hands. ESPN’s Buster Olney agrees. Fukudome went from being cheered during the season to booed during the postseason. So what the hey?
The curious case of Kosuke Fukudome defies easy explanation. With the exception of July (which was clearly an abberation) his K/BB ratio remained steady. His ability to drive the ball just seemed to melt in the summer heat—his SLG % dropped every month, bottoming out at .253 in August before bouncing back, mildly, to .283 in a part-time role in September. After hitting .305 in April, he hit .193 in August. His BA/BIP was league average—.304. And sure, he hit better at Wrigley than on the road, but what Cub didn't? Even his lefty/right splits are just about even--in fact, he fared a little better against lefties.
On the whole, Fukudome put up a decent line in his rookie season: .257/.359/.379 with 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 75 runs scored. (Looks like John Dewan's Stat of the Week prediction, last December, wasn't that far off.) Is it possible that, like the Cubs' season in general, Fukudome suffered from unrealistic expectations and way too much media hype? What if, translated from the Japanese, this is just the kind of player Fukudome is? Maybe he's not the big lefty bat the Cubs thought they were getting in the offseason. (A lot of us knew this going into it.) But is he a useful player? Sure. Is he $12m a year useful? For a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, or now the Cubs--absolutely. They won't even feel that salary, even if Fukudome ends up platooning in center next season with Reed Johnson.
So okay. Maybe Fukudome isn't the savior that will lead the Cubs to the Promised Land. And there seem to be some questions about his work ethic, skipping optional workouts, not taking extra batting practice, etc. The Cubs are talking about bringing in a private hitting coach for Fukudome next year, on top of his private trainer. And his slump came at the worst possible time, coinciding as it did with the Cubs' playoff collapse.
But given all these things, his first season stateside has to be considered a success. Better than someone like Kaz Matsui, but not as terrific as Ichiro's, or even Tadahito Iguchi—his most similar comp in Japan.
So the season didn't exactly end the way we hoped for Kosuke when the season began. Fine. As Tom Glavine said after getting pounded in his final start of 2007, the one in which the Mets' playoff hopes were crushed, their collapse completed, most seasons don't end up the way you want—that is, they don't end with a World Series win. That's why there's always next year.
Kazuo Fukumori, RP—#14—Texas Rangers
Birthplace: Osaka, Japan
Apparently, the Texas Rangers were so unimpressed with Kazuo Fukumori they didn't even deem him worthy of a September call-up. It's not hard to see why: at AAA-Oklahoma he posted a 5.48 ERA, opponents hit .300 off him, and his K/BB ratio was just better than 2/1. After a miserable big league performance earlier this year in which his ERA was an insane 20.25, Fukumori needs to do a lot of work to right his ship if he expects to contribute in a meaningful way in 2009.
As the Magic 8 Ball would say, "The future is cloudy."
Masahide Kobayashi, RP—#30—Cleveland Indians
Birthplace: Yamanashi, Japan
In what started out to be a season with so much promise, Masa Kobayashi really finished the year on a sour note. He appeared in only three games in September—with the Indians way out of the race—and posted a 9.00 ERA. His ERA in August was 15.00.
Despite this, when taken in full, his season was not a complete disaster: a 4.53 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a 35/14 K/BB ratio. Plenty of employed major league relievers have seasons worse than this, but few have the roller coaster season we chronicled here.
Deep thoughts from Kobayashi can be found on NPB Tracker, here. "There is no yesterday," says the man. Let's hope that's true—that he can turn the page on this disappointing season and come back next year fresh.
In the end, Kobayashi turned in a middling performance that fell somewhat short of expectations (as did the season on a whole for the Cleveland Indians). On the other hand, only two-thirds of the new imports played all season in the big leagues, and he was part of that bunch. Kobayashi will certainly be back next year—not as a closer—but if things break right, and if he can keep the ball on the ground a little bit better, he could still emerge as a successful set-up man for whoever the Tribe employs to close the door in the ninth.
Hiroki Kuroda, RP—#18 —Los Angeles Dodgers
Birthplace: Osaka, Japan
If there were any questions as to what kind of player Hiroki Kuroda was—or what kind of man— he answered them Sunday night in Game 3 of the NLCS. The Philadelphia Phillies led his Los Angeles Dodgers two games to none; the Phillies had pitched inside during the first two games, even sailing a pitch behind Dodger left fielder Manny Ramirez' head. According to baseball's moral code, it was time to retaliate, but none of the Dodger pitchers had the guts.
Except for Hiro.
Apparently, Dodger pitcher Derek Lowe and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt called Kuroda over to the bench, along with his translator. They explained the protocol. And Kuroda delivered, sailing a pitch over the head of Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino. The Flyin' Hawaiin was visibly upset, and seemed to be saying "If you're going to hit me, hit me in the ribs, not the head." Kuroda, unshaken, coaxed Victorino into a groundout and then, as he passed first base, exchanged a few words. Apparently, Kuroda's English is good enough to talk smack. The benches empited. No one was ejected. Justice was served.
The media seems to be crediting Dodger catcher Russel Martin for calling the pitch, but immediately after the game on the TBS broadcast, Martin said Kuroda threw the pitch on his own. The party line this morning seems to be, "The pitch slipped." But make no mistake: Kuroda knew the stakes. He looked around at the Dodger pitching staff and realized if you want a job done right, you have to do it yourself. So he risked ejection and reputation in order to protect his batters. In order to send a message. "We will not be pushed around."
Kuroda went six innings in Game 3 and gave up two runs on five hits, walking one, and striking out three. It was his second sparkling postseason performancehe ushered the Chicago Cubs out of the playoffs in Game 3 of the NLDS, pitching 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball.
After a rough July in which he posted a 5.24 ERA, he was downright dominant (and perhaps finally healthy) in August and September. He went 4-2 in the season's final two months, posting a 47/11 K/BB ratio while keeping his ERA below 3.00. In the starts I've seen, including the playoffs, he's simply throwing strikes and—especially in the NLDS—forcing the opposing batters to pound the ball into the ground. It's a recipe for success, especially at Dodger Stadium, where his WHIP is almost thirty percentage points lower than on the road.
Officially, he finished the regular season 9-10, but his record speaks more to a lack of run support than a lack of performance on his part. In fact, according to Bill James Online, his ERA was 1.66 in 21.2 innings pitched against teams with a better-than .600 winning percentage; his strikeout ratio was nearly 20% better against these teams than his season's K rate. If you plotted a graph with the winning percentages of his opponents on the x axis and Kuroda's ERA on the y, it would be a ski-slope—his ERA against sub-.400 teams was a full four runs higher than teams with a winning percentage over .600. So Kuroda's postseason dominance is no surprise—he's a big game pitcher. Plain and simple.
And while he throws his fastball more than half the time, his slider jams righties while his split-finger completely neutralizes left-handed batters...his split-finger almost looks like Jose Contreras' on a good day. His expected ERA was only 3.18—more than half a run lower than his season ERA of 3.73.
Given that he's the only new MLB import still playing games, we have to consider Kuroda's first big league season a rousing success. And for all you fantasy players out there, I'd have Kuroda on my list of pitchers to try and snag cheap on draft day next year. His wins don't at all reflect how good the rest of his peripherals were, so he's almost gauranteed to be undervalued.
Except by the rest of his Dodger teammates, of course.
Alexei Ramirez, OF/2B—#10—Chicago White Sox
Birthplace: Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Let me start with this: There's no way Alexei Ramirez wins the AL Rooke of the Year. Not that he doesn't deserve it. But with all the love for Evan Longoria—who is a heckuva ballplayer in his own right—coupled with the Rays' meteoric rise, Ramirez will be lucky to garner even one first place vote.
Award voting rarely makes any sense. But let me throw a couple things out there for consideration.
Without Longoria, the Rays would most likely have finished, if not in first place, then as the wild card coming out of the AL East. When Longoria hit the DL in August, the Rays never stumbled. They had the bodies to somewhat make up for his absence.
On the other hand, without Ramirez, I contend there's no way the White Sox win the division—heck, they nearly didn't win the division with Ramirez. But the Cuban Missile opened the season in CF, finally taking over full-time duties at 2B about midway through the season. This move to the keystone coincided with the Sox' 3B, Joe Crede, hitting the DL, where he would stay for the remainder of the year. Juan Uribe, displaced by Ramirez from 2B, slid over to 3B and the Sox didn't miss a beat. Without Ramirez? Uribe stays at 2B, and Josh Fields hacks his way through the season's second half—or worse, Uribe slides to third and Sox fans would have been treated to a half-season worth of the since-dispensed Pablo Ozuna at 2B.
So, if the stats are a wash, I ask myself who was the most valuable player to his team. It was Ramirez, hands down. But there's more.
Four grand slams. That's how many Alexei Ramirez hit this year. That tied the all-time record. He hit .380 with runners in scoring position. His clutch rating was 12.4, compared to Longoria's -6 (.241 with RISP). And in an otherwise curmudgeonly and somewhat disfunctional clubhouse, Ramirez' enthusiasm cut through all the B.S. and reminded Sox fans why the game is fun.
Are there holes in Ramirez' game? Absolutely. If the rumors are true, and the Sox expect him to play shortstop and hit leadoff next year, he'll have to bring that OBP up and work a little bit harder on his glove. But few rookies don't have holes in their game. And at $4m a year--especially considering what the Cubs spent for Kosuke Fukudome last offseason—Ramirez is the bargain of the decade.
He's also the 2008 Rookie of the Year. At least as far as this web site is concerned.
Birthplace: Osaka, Japan
"Shake" Yabuta earned a September call-up and pitched quite well, posting a 1.42 ERA and a 5/0 K/BB ratio, while holding opponents to a .143 batting average in 6 1/3 innings pitched. The majority of these apperances were all in junk time, with the game well out of hand, but as an audition these apperances seem to have done him good. The K/BB ratio is especially encouraging, after he walked more than he struck out in both April and June.
Having never seen them in the same room together, I wonder if Yabuta and Fukumori aren't exactly the same person. Yabuta's foray into the minor leagues (AAA-Omaha) also yielded less-desireable results: in 40 1/3 innings pitched, a 5.36 ERA, a .291 opponent batting average, and a K/BB ratio just north of 2/1. His groundball/flyout ratio is the most disturbing trend—it stands at an even 1.00. Like many of his fellow countrymen, he pounds the strikezone, but like Fukumori, he's gotta keep the ball down. Check out the stat lines of these two guys. They're eerily similiar.
For their investment, the Royals were hoping they'd hired a reliable bullpen arm. Yabuta turned out to be less than that, and hardly impressed with his minor league performance. Still, given the Japanese pride factor, I bet Yabuta makes the big league squad out of spring training next year and puts in a performance closer to Kobayashi's 2008.
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