Sunday, August 3, 2008

2008 Olympics: Team USA Breakdown

I almost skipped this preview entierly, because there's very little I can say about the 2008 incarnation of Team USA that hasn't already been said. They're expected to compete for the gold; they have arguably the brightest prospects of any team in the tournament.

Here's my projected starting lineup:

MANAGER: Davey Johnson, Team USA. Much like Taiwanese manager Yi-Chung Hung, Johnson carries a lot of expectations into the 2008 games. He won a World Series as a second baseman with the Baltimore Orioles; he won a World Series as the manager for the 1986 Mets. He also has extensive international experience: He played two years with the Tokyo Giants in the mid-1970s, and briefly managed the Dutch National Team in their march to the 2004 Olympics.

CATCHER: Lou Marson, Reading Phillies. A former college quarterback, Marson is currently hitting .319/.434/.423 at AA-Reading in the Philadelphia Phillies' farm system. A fourth-round pick in 2004, he has all-around game, throwing out nearly 40% of would-be basestealers so far in 2008. A line-drive hitter with above-average game calling skills, Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook lists him as the eighth-best prospect in the Phillies' organization.

FIRST BASE: Matt LaPorta, Akron Aeros. Most conversations about Team USA's offense begin and end with LaPorta. Selected by the Milwaukee Brewers out of the University of Florida with the seventh overall pick in 2008, LaPorta was traded to the Cleveland Indians for 2007 AL Cy Young Award Winner CC Sabathia (there are no periods in CC, by the way). Although his defense and strikezone judgement could stand some improvement, he was at .288/.402/.576 before being traded to Cleveland. He'll anchor the heart of Team USA's lineup.

SECOND BASE: Brian Barden, Memphis Redbirds. Barden debuted with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007, but at twenty-seven years old he's looking like a 'tweener.' A natural third baseman, somebody has to play out of position in this infield, and my bet is Barden. Drafted out of Oregon State, he'll be the first Beaver to compete in the Olympics (insert your own joke here). Currently at .293/.357/.434 and very low on the orginazational depth chart in the Cardinals' bottomless reservoir of slow, white guys who can hit a little.

THIRD BASE: Mike Hessman, Toldeo Mud Hens. Another 'tweener,' thirty-year old Hessman was drafted in the 15th Round by the Atlanta Braves in 1996. He saw brief big league playing time with Atlanta in 2003 and 2004, and again with the Detroit Tigers in 2007. He averaged a home run every 13.19 at-bats in 2007, and for what it's worth, his first major league hit was a pinch-hit homerun.

SHORTSTOP: Jason Donald, Reading Phillies. Originally drafted by the Anaheim Angels, Donald turned down a $1M signing bonus to attend the University of Arizona. He signed with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006. The 15th-ranked prospect in the Phillies' system, according to Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook, Donald has a short, compact stroke that produces gap power. Although not a burner, he does draw walks and displays great instincts on the basebapths. His range and arm are reportedly below average, but he's a smart player who positions himself well. John Sickels graded him only a C in The Baseball Prospect Book 2007, projecting him as a future utility man in the major leagues. Currently at .305/.385/.506 for AA-Reading, he was the starting shortstop in the 2008 World Futures Game.

LEFT FIELD: "Who Is" John Gall, Albuquerque Isotopes. The third 'tweener' on Team USA, thirty-year-old Gall hit .245/.268/.415 in the Qualification Tournament and stands at .313/.369/.496 for the Florida Marlins' AAA affiliate. He caught cups of coffee with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2005 and 2007, but couldn't quite stick (see end note on Brian Barden).

CENTER FIELD: Dexter Fowler, Tulsa Drillers. The third-ranked prospect in the Colorado Rockies farm system according to Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook, Fowler had options to play basketball for Harvard or baseball for the University of Miami before signing with the Rox. A "graceful athlete" with plus range and an above-average arm, he took up switch-hitting in the minor leagues and now bats a little stronger from the left side of the plate. By all accounts a five-tool star in the making, John Sickels compares him to the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chris Young. Fowler is currently at .327/.425/.514 for the Rockies' AA affiliate. He'll probably bat second for Team USA.

RIGHT FIELD: Colby Rasmus, Memphis Redbirds. Rasmus, a first-round draft pick in 2005, is the top-ranked prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals' organization according to Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Everyone expects he'll be a star. He wields a "smooth, balanced left-hand swing that packs plenty of punch." Only twenty-two years old, he's at .251/.345/.396 for the Cards' AAA team. Rasmus lead off for Team USA in the Qualification Tournament, and I expect more of the same during the Olympics. A centerfielder for the Redbirds, he'll slide over to right field in Beijing. You can visit his fansite here.

DESIGNATED HITTER: Terry Tiffee and/or LaPorta.

STARTING ROTATION: Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Stephen Strasburg.

BULLPEN: Geno Espineli and Kevin Jepsen .

Needless to say, the boys from the States are expected to duke it out with Cuba and Japan for the gold medal. The stakes couldn't be higher; not only will baseball be dropped from the Olympics in 2012, Team USA failed to qualify in 2004 after besting Cuba--a two-time champion--in 2000. Team USA also captured a silver and a gold in 1984 and 1988 respectively, back when baseball was just a demonstration sport. They, like Cuba, definitely have a chip on their shoulder heading into the games.

Team USA is at a slight disadvantage because only minor league or amateur players can represent the States in Beijing, and there are a ton of restrictions that come with that. For example, if a prospect might get called up to the bigs later this summer (David Price comes to mind) his organization might restrict him from participating in the games, etc.

But even matched against seasoned professionals from Cuba or Japan, this team has a very good shot at a medal. Yes, the defense is suspect. But LaPorta, Fowler, Rasmus and Marson are arguably major-league ready, and the starting rotation might be the best of any Olympic challenger. Davey Johnson will have these kids ready to play, and I see them sniffing silver at least. Heck, if things break right, they might just bring home the gold.

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