Tuesday, August 5, 2008

2008 Olympics: Japanese National Team Breakdown

For many years I drove a 2001 Mitsubishi Eclipse—I loved that car. It was silver, with black leather interior, moon-roof and a kick-ass premium sound system. Driving that car was pure pleasure. It was a stick shift, and sometimes I would turn the volume on my kick-ass sound system off just to listen to the sound of the car’s engine hum along the road.

Actually, that’s not entirely accurate. The car was fun to drive as long as it could actually be driven, because if I even looked at a pothole funny the clutch and alignment would be thrown completely out of whack. After one such incident, when it felt like I was trying to accelerate through molasses so I took the car in to have the clutch realigned, my mechanic actually called me and said, “I have never seen this kind of problem on a car ever before!” Apparently the nut was bent over the lug or something crazy… anyway, it wasn’t good.

The problem with the car was that it was over-engineered. Instead of making it simple, the think-tank over at Mitsubishi made everything so perfectly aligned, so infinitely fine that yes, it was a great drive (and I mean GREAT), but it was also damn expensive to repair. And I had to repair my Eclipse a lot.

This is kind of like the 2008 incarnation of the Japanese National Team. They are engineered—maybe to a fault. So much thought has gone into the team’s makeup, so much effort has been spent trying to get the right mix of old and new players, those with experience and those without, that this over-engineering may actually hurt them in the end. They’re certainly dealing with enough injuries right now, that’s for sure.

Two-thirds of the players who helped Japan sweep through the 2007 Asian Baseball Championship will represent the national team in Beijing, but the manager Senichi Hoshino has also brought along younger, perhaps hungrier players who are just coming into their own in the Nippon Baseball League. Promising players like Yu Darvish, Hiroyuki Nakajima and Takahiko “G.G” Sato will gain valuable international experience.

Japan is somewhat hobbled by injuries—starting first baseman Takahiro Arai (back) will not play in the Olympics, and right fielder Atsunori Inaba (buttocks) is so banged up that less than a month ago his manager called to make sure he could still play.

With only ten pitchers on the roster, Japan will use a tandem rotation, asking two starters to go four innings each so Hoshino can turn them around on four days’ rest. Although traditionally less obsessed with power than their American counterparts, we can expect this Japanese National Team to manufacture runs and nickel and dime the opposition to death—even more so than in years past.

"We learned in Taiwan last year that with international umpires, you can't depend on their strike zone,” said coach Koichi Tabuchi. “That's why we're going less for power and more for guys who are going to build rallies."

How exactly do they plan to do that? Let’s take a look:

MANAGER: Senichi Hoshino, Japanese National Team. “I only need the gold—not any other color.” These were the words of Hoshino when he was introduced as the Japanese National Team manager in 2007. Think this guy wants to win? He’s basically been scouting the international tournaments for the past year, compiling a book on every player his team is likely to face. He’s also sort of the Japanese version of John McGraw, reportedly yelling at his players “every day” and even going so far as to hit them if they miss a sign. Always the first one into the melee whenever there’s a brawl, Hoshino has even fined players who stayed in the dugout during a fight. And while he’s drawn some criticism for his controversial managerial style, the players love him for the same reasons—his loyalty and above all, his utter will to win. And no one can argue with his record as a manager: He’s 920-791 in the NBL with three league championships.

CATCHER: Shinnosuke Abe, Yomiuri Giants. Abe is the top catcher in the NBL. He rakes his way through the regular season and then rakes his way through international play. Lifetime he’s .285/.360/.487 while playing nearly flawlessly at catcher. A perpetual All-Star, he was the All-Star Game MVP in 2007 and was later MVP of the 2007 Asian Championship while leading Japan to the Olympics. He hasn’t batted less than .300 with runners in scoring position since 2003. The Sturgeon General did some nice work projecting Japanese players in the major leagues, and they project Abe at .271/.321/.392 in the States. That’s roughly Bengie Molina territory, which is nothing to sneeze at.

FIRST BASE: Michihiro Ogasawara, Yomiuri Giants. Ogasawara’s roster spot hasn’t been confirmed, but speculation is that he’ll take the position vacated by the injured Takahiro Arai. Some thought Ogasawara was snubbed anyway; knee surgery made him unavailable for the qualifiers but he was healthy when Hoshino assembled the final Olympic roster. Winner of two batting championships, he ranks third in NBL history in career batting average behind Ichiro Suzuki and Randy Bass (Randy Bass?). Ogasawara won the MVP in 2006 (313/.397/.573) while leading the league in home runs, becoming the first Nippon Ham to win the award in a quarter century. Unofficially, his nickname is the Dolphin or Mr. Gut-Full Swing. He runs a sightseeing business in the off-season. Also, his ‘stache easily rivals the Jason Giambi porn-stache, which is no small feat.

SECOND BASE: Tsuyoshi Nishioka,Chiba Lotte Marines. Nishioka believes nothing is impossible. He also won an honorable mention in Jhockey’s 2008 Mullet Championship. A first-round draft pick in 2002, Nishioka became a switch-hitter when he turned pro. He’s a gifted and versatile defender, splitting time between shortstop and second base—in 2005 he won a Gold Glove at second base while being selected as a Best of Nine at shortstop. Over four seasons his career batting average is .280 with 109 stolen bases. Kind’ve a Mark Ellis type if Mark Ellis played for a team that stole bases. Ever.

THIRD BASE: Shuichi Murata, Yokohama BayStars. Known for his opposite-field power, Murata bats cleanup for the BayStars. In 2007 he led the league in home runs (36) while finishing third in runs (94) and fourth in RBI (101). He always seems to just miss a Best of Nine (All-Star) selection—losing out to the America-bound Akinori Iwamura in 2006 and to Michihiro Ogasawara (regularly a third baseman) in 2007. He was MVP of the Month in July, batting .396 with 11 homers and 24 RBI. In Japan’s quest to play small ball, he’s really the only big-time power threat in the Olympic lineup.

SHORTSTOP: Munenori Kawasaki, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Japan’s shortstop when they won the 2006 World Baseball Classic, this will be Kawasaki’s first Olympic appearance. A Best of Nine selection and Gold Glove winner in 2004, he also led the league in hits that year with 174. Watching him in the 2006 WBC, ESPN’s Eric Neel compared his gracefulness in the field to Ozzie Smith. Lifetime he’s .298/.387/.352 and posted the highest batting average in his career (.321) in 2007. If you read Japanese, you can visit his fan site here. (You can visit the fan site even if you don't read Japanese, but I really don't know what you'll get out of it.)

LEFT FIELD: : Masahiko Morino, Chunichi Dragons. Known as “Mr. Three-Run” for all the three-run homers he hits, Morino played all over the diamond in his first several years in the league, finally settling down in left field in 2007. Hitting fifth, he hit .294/.366/.458 with 75 runs, 97 RBI, and 18 home runs, leading Chunichi to its first Japan Series victory in 53 years.

CENTER FIELD: Norichika Aoki, Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Aoki burst like spicy aoli sauce into the NBL in 2005, winning the batting crown, leading the league in hits and being named to the Central League’s Best of Nine en route to winning ROY honors. His league-leading 202 hits were the second most single-season hits in NBL history (Ichiro Suzuki had the most, 210, in 1994). A three-time Gold Glove Winner, he won the batting championship again in 2007. He’s a “good contact hitter with decent power.” Only twenty-six years old, Aoki is currently hitting .342 with 11 homers and 34 RBI.

RIGHT FIELD: Atsunori Inaba, Nippon Ham Fighters. Veteran Inaba hit 50 homers in high school before being drafted in the third round in 1994. Since then he’s had a long if somewhat underappreciated career, occasionally pockmarked by sporadic playing time or injury. Still, heading into 2008 his career line was .290/.344/.469—although when he tried to post as a free agent in 2004, every MLB team took a pass. But even if his bat isn’t quite what it used to be, he was the MVP of the 2006 Japan Series when he led the Ham Fighters to the Championship. He also managed an OPS of .803 in 2007—not star caliber, but serviceable. Add to that his popularity with the fans—he’s one of the few outfielders to toss the ball into the bleachers if he catches the third out—as well as the valuable experience he brings to the team, and his selection is validated, especially if he splits time at DH with up-and-comer Takahiko G.G. Sato.

DESIGNATED HITTER: Takahiko G.G. Sato and/or Atsunori Inaba.

STARTING ROTATION: Kenshin Kawakami , Yoshihisa Naruse and Yu Darvish .

BULLPEN: Hitoki Iwase and Koji Uehara .

Japan won the 2006 World Baseball Classic, and still towers as the dominant force in the East, having won 14 gold medals and 9 silver medals in 53 years of the Asian Baseball Championship. They brought home the silver medal in the 1996 Olympics and the bronze in 1992 and 2004. They won the whole she-bang back when it was a demonstration sport, in 1984.

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